How many HDB flats reach MOP each quarter in Singapore?

In 2025, an estimated 6,973 HDB units reached their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) — the point at which owners can sell on the open resale market for the first time. Of these, approximately 2,675 were 4-room flats and 1,219 were 5-room flats. For 2026, the PropKaki Wave™ projects a total of 13,484 MOP units across all flat types — 6,511 more than 2025. PropKaki Wave™ derives these figures from block-level completion records on data.gov.sg, distributing units across quarters using a Q3/Q4-heavy pattern that reflects HDB's historical key-collection calendar.

PropKaki Wave™ — Q1 2026 snapshot

Estimated HDB units reaching MOP in Q1 2026, by flat type. Figures are modelled from HDB block-level completion data — not observed transaction counts. Total MOP units were down 0.3% versus the prior quarter.

Annual MOP supply — 2025, 2026 and 2027

Total sold units projected to reach MOP across all four quarters of each calendar year. 2027 is a forward projection — blocks completed in 2022 reaching 5-year MOP. All figures are PropKaki Wave™ estimates, not official HDB targets.

PropKaki Wave™ — last 8 quarters

Forward projection — next 6 quarters

Estimated MOP units for upcoming quarters, derived from blocks already completed and recorded in HDB Property Information. These are projections based on completion dates already observed — they do not include future BTO projects not yet completed and registered in the dataset.

Note: forward quarters reflect blocks already completed and registered. Blocks currently under construction (not yet in HDB Property Information) are not yet captured — the forward curve will understate future MOP supply for years where recent BTO completions have not yet been registered.

Why does the MOP supply wave matter?

Singapore's HDB resale market is structurally supply-constrained in the short term because most HDB flats are sold directly by HDB under BTO exercises, with a 5-year lock-in before they can enter the resale pool. The number of flats newly released from MOP each quarter is therefore one of the key structural determinants of resale supply — alongside new BTO launches, voluntary sellers, and million-dollar flat activity.

The PropKaki Wave is a leading indicator: the cohort of flats completing MOP in a given quarter represents the ceiling on new HDB resale listings from first-time sellers. In practice, not all MOP-completing owners will choose to sell — many will continue living in their flat, rent it out, or wait for a better price — so actual new listings are always a fraction of the Wave reading.

Watch for "Wave peaks" — quarters or years where the MOP cohort is significantly larger than adjacent periods. These typically correspond to years 2018–2020 BTO completions (large launches pre-COVID, with some delays) and tend to coincide with periods of elevated HDB resale volume.

Data notes and limitations

The PropKaki Wave uses year_completed from HDB Property Information (block-level census, not a sample). All quarterly figures are modelled distributions — the dataset provides only the completion year, not the specific quarter of key collection. PropKaki applies a 15/15/35/35 Q1–Q4 skew based on HDB's historical H2-heavy key-collection pattern.

Prime / PLH model flats (launched from 2022) carry a 10-year MOP. These are currently modelled at 5 years in the Wave (methodology v1.0), consistent with the source dataset's inability to distinguish BTO model type at block level. This causes a slight overestimate of PLH resale supply in the ~2027–2033 window. A PLH adjustment is planned for v1.1.

Forward coverage gap: The dataset covers blocks already completed and registered. BTO projects currently under construction (completion expected 2024–2028) will only appear once keys have been issued and the block is registered in HDB Property Information. Until then, the Wave's forward curve understates upcoming MOP supply.