Singapore Property Market Outlook 2026: What the Data Says
What official Singapore property data shows right now — private residential prices, HDB resale, mortgage rates and affordability — with context for buyers who want the numbers without the noise. All data sourced from URA, HDB, MAS and SingStat.
All figures are sourced automatically from official government publications via PropKaki Intelligence. The pulse card refreshes with each quarterly data release from URA, HDB, and MAS.
1. Private residential market
The URA Private Residential Property Price Index (PPI) measures price movements across all private homes — non-landed condominiums, apartments, and landed housing. It is Singapore's most widely cited property price benchmark.
Metric
Value
Period
URA PPI (all private residential)
218.3
Q1 2026
Quarter-on-quarter change
+0.9%
vs prior quarter
Year-on-year change
+3.4%
vs same quarter last year
Non-landed rental index
161.9
Q1 2026
Private residential vacancy rate
6.2%
Q1 2026
Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) quarterly Real Estate Statistics.
What this means
Private home prices are rising, but at a measured pace. The Q1 2026 PPI reading reflects broad-based growth across non-landed and landed segments. Transaction volume for new sales fell sharply — approximately 5,413 units in Q1 2026, down ~19% quarter-on-quarter — driven by a thin launch pipeline, not weak demand.
The unsold pipeline stands at approximately 16,000 units with peak completions expected around 2028. Buyers purchasing off-plan today are buying into that completion wave. The vacancy rate gives a read on rental demand: a reading above 6–7% is the range where landlord pricing power begins to weaken.
The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) tracks price movements across all open-market HDB resale transactions. It is the official measure of HDB resale market direction.
Metric
Value
Period
HDB Resale Price Index
203.4
Q1 2026
Quarter-on-quarter change
-0.1%
vs prior quarter
Year-on-year change
+1.2%
vs same quarter last year
Median 4-room resale price
S$628,000
Q1 2026
Source: HDB resale transaction data (data.gov.sg).
What this means
The Q1 2026 dip is the first quarterly HDB resale price decline since Q2 2019. It follows four years of strong resale price growth and is better interpreted as a normalisation than a downturn. Three forces are compressing the market: increased BTO flat completions (supply rising), the August 2024 LTV tightening from 80% to 75% for HDB loans (reduced borrowing capacity), and ABSD-driven caution among upgraders.
Million-dollar HDB transactions hit a record share in Q1 2026 (~6.6% of all resales), concentrated in Bishan, Queenstown, Toa Payoh and Bukit Merah. Buyers should note that headline "million-dollar HDB" transactions represent a thin slice of the market — the median remains far below S$1 million.
Full data
HDB RPI history, town price rankings, million-dollar transaction tracker and lease decay data (PropKaki Curve™): HDB Resale Tracker
3. Cost of borrowing
Singapore floating-rate mortgages are benchmarked to the 3-month compounded SORA (Singapore Overnight Rate Average), published daily by MAS. Bank spreads currently run 0.8–1.2%. The HDB concessionary loan rate is fixed at 2.6% (0.1% above the CPF Ordinary Account interest rate).
Loan amount
Float (1.13% SORA + 1%)
HDB loan (2.6%)
Stress rate (4.7%)
S$500,000
S$2,151/mo
S$2,268/mo
S$2,836/mo
S$750,000
S$3,227/mo
S$3,403/mo
S$4,254/mo
S$1,000,000
S$4,302/mo
S$4,537/mo
S$5,672/mo
S$1,500,000
S$6,453/mo
S$6,805/mo
S$8,509/mo
Monthly repayment on a 25-year tenure. Floating rate = current SORA + 1% spread. Stress rate (4.7%) is illustrative of a +3.6pp rate rise — approximately the 2022 SORA peak. HDB concessionary loan rate is 2.6% (fixed). Figures are indicative; actual rates and tenure vary by lender.
What this means
SORA has declined from its 2023 peak above 3.7%. At current levels (~1.08%), floating-rate loans are meaningfully cheaper than HDB's concessionary rate — roughly 80–90 basis points lower in all-in terms. The decision between floating and fixed, or bank vs HDB loan, depends on your loan size, risk tolerance, and whether you meet HDB loan eligibility criteria.
The stress column (4.7%) is not a forecast — it is a planning reference. MAS requires banks to stress-test borrowers at TDSR under a 3pp rate shock. If the stress repayment puts you above 55% of gross income, you may not qualify for the full loan amount you want.
The PropKaki Affordability Index™ measures the number of years of gross median household income required to buy the median HDB 4-room resale flat. It is computed from official HDB resale transaction data (HDB / data.gov.sg) and SingStat's household income series M810361.
Metric
Value
Period
Median 4-room HDB resale price
S$628,000
Q1 2026
Median monthly household income
S$12,027
2025
Gross annual household income
S$144,324
—
PropKaki Affordability Index™
4.4 years of income
—
The index uses gross income before grants, CPF usage and mortgage interest, making it consistently comparable across years. Government housing grants (Enhanced CPF Housing Grant, Proximity Grant) materially reduce out-of-pocket cost for eligible buyers — the index does not capture these by design.
What this means
An affordability index above 5× means the median household needs more than five years of its full gross income to cover the price of a median HDB flat — before paying for food, transport, education, or anything else. Singapore's figure has risen from around 4× in the mid-2010s.
This is not the same as unaffordable. CPF OA contributions (typically 23% of salary for employees) build up a housing deposit automatically; HDB grants can reduce the effective price by S$30,000–80,000 for eligible first-timers. The index captures pre-grant, pre-CPF gross affordability — the right denominator for comparing across time, but not the number to use for your personal budget.
Full data
Full affordability history from 2000, income vs price charts, methodology: Affordability Tracker
5. What buyers are asking in 2026
HDB upgrader moving to private condo
The relevant metrics are PPI trajectory (+0.9% QoQ), your remaining MOP on the HDB flat, and the ABSD rate for your second property (20% for Singapore Citizens). With floating rates falling, the cost of borrowing case for buying now vs waiting 12 months is neutral-to-positive. The bigger variable is whether your HDB MOP is behind or ahead of the private market completion wave (~2028). A BUC purchase now targeting TOP 2027–2028 lands you in the middle of peak new supply.
First-timer buying HDB resale
The -0.1% QoQ HDB RPI reading gives first-timers a marginal window — not a crash, but the first price softening in 5 years. The August 2024 LTV reduction to 75% for HDB loans means your loan-to-value headroom is tighter. Grants (EHG up to S$80,000, PHG up to S$30,000) remain available and should be factored into your effective price before comparing estates. Check remaining lease carefully — CPF usage is pro-rated if the flat won't cover the youngest buyer to age 95.
Investor or upgrader buying private for rental
The vacancy rate and rental index are your leading indicators here. A rising vacancy rate compresses yields before it shows in prices — monitor the Private Residential Tracker quarterly. Non-landed rental index softening since mid-2024 reflects a combination of new completions and expat leasing volume moderation. District-level analysis matters: vacancy in OCR differs meaningfully from CCR. PropKaki's District Price Tracker and Segments Tracker break this down.
6. Frequently asked questions
Are Singapore private property prices rising or falling in 2026?
Singapore private home prices, measured by the URA Private Residential Property Price Index, rose +0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026 and +3.4% year-on-year. The market is in modest, broad-based growth — not a sharp run-up. PropKaki Intelligence tracks the full PPI history from 1975 at propkaki.sg/market/private-residential.
Is the HDB resale market slowing down in 2026?
HDB resale prices dipped -0.1% in Q1 2026 — the first quarterly decline since Q2 2019. This follows four years of strong resale price growth. The pullback is modest and reflects higher supply from BTO completions, August 2024 LTV tightening to 75%, and buyer caution. PropKaki Intelligence tracks the full HDB Resale Price Index at propkaki.sg/market/hdb.
What is the current SORA mortgage rate in Singapore?
The 3-month compounded SORA is published daily by MAS. As of Q2 2026 it is approximately 1.08%. Most floating-rate home loans are priced at SORA plus a bank spread of around 0.8–1.2%, giving an all-in rate of roughly 1.9–2.3%. PropKaki tracks the full SORA history at propkaki.sg/market/cost-of-money.
Is it a good time to buy property in Singapore in 2026?
No single indicator gives a definitive answer. Private prices are edging up (+0.9% QoQ Q1 2026) with ~16,000 unsold units in the pipeline peaking ~2028 — supply pressure that could moderate future appreciation. Borrowing costs are easing with SORA at ~1.08%, but the PropKaki Affordability Index shows the median 4-room HDB flat still costs more than 5 years of gross household income. Each buyer's correct answer depends on their holding period, loan headroom, and CPF position. PropKaki Intelligence publishes the underlying data free of charge so you can check each metric yourself.
How many million-dollar HDB flats were sold in Q1 2026?
Approximately 412 HDB resale transactions exceeded S$1 million in Q1 2026, representing about 6.6% of all resale transactions — a record share. Million-dollar HDB flats are now concentrated in mature estates (Bishan, Queenstown, Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah) and premium flat types (5-room, executive). PropKaki tracks HDB million-dollar transactions at propkaki.sg/market/hdb.
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This guide is prepared by Straits Intelligence Pte. Ltd. for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or property purchase advice. All figures are sourced from official Singapore government publications: URA, HDB, MAS and SingStat. Data refreshes automatically with each quarterly release.