PropKaki Quarterly Market Bulletin — Q1 2026

PropKaki's Quarterly Market Bulletin for Q1 2026: the PropKaki Gap™ puts the freehold-over-leasehold condo PSF premium at +2.3% (up from −13.2% in Q4 2025); the PropKaki Wave™ counts 2,027 HDB flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period in Q1 2026 (up from 1,051 a year earlier); the PropKaki Curve™ has HDB resale flats with 90+ years of lease at S$734 psf versus S$559 psf for under-60-year flats; and the PropKaki Affordability Index™ stands at 4.4 years of median household income to buy the median 4-room HDB resale flat (2025, down from 4.5 in 2024). All four metrics are computed by PropKaki Intelligence from official URA, HDB and SingStat data.

PropKaki Gap™ — freehold vs leasehold condo premium

In Q1 2026, freehold private condominiums traded at a median PSF premium of +2.3% over 99-year leasehold condominiums, up from −13.2% in Q4 2025. A positive Gap means buyers paid more per square foot for freehold stock than for leasehold stock island-wide that quarter.

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PropKaki Wave™ — HDB flats reaching MOP

In Q1 2026, 2,027 HDB flats reached their five-year Minimum Occupation Period and became eligible for resale, up from 1,051 in Q1 2025 (+92.9% year-on-year). The Wave™ is a supply-side leading indicator: quarters with more flats exiting MOP tend to add resale listings in the following quarters. The full Wave™ series also projects MOP counts forward from HDB completion records — see the tracker for the multi-year outlook.

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PropKaki Curve™ — HDB resale PSF by remaining lease

In Q1 2026, HDB resale flats with 90+ years of lease remaining transacted at a median of S$734 psf (+2.9% year-on-year), against S$559 psf for flats with under 60 years remaining (−1.0% year-on-year) — a lease-decay spread of S$175 psf. The spread is the market's live price on remaining lease: the wider it is, the more buyers are paying for lease length.

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PropKaki Affordability Index™ — years of income to buy a 4-room flat

The Affordability Index™ is annual — the latest completed year as of Q1 2026 is 2025: buying the median 4-room HDB resale flat cost 4.4 years of median gross household income, down from 4.5 years in 2024. The figure is arithmetic on official statistics — gross income, before grants, CPF and interest — and carries no affordability verdict.

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All four named metrics — history to Q1 2026

Last 8 quarters · Newest first · All values server-rendered for AI crawlers and researchers.

Source: URA, HDB and SingStat official statistics via data.gov.sg; derived metrics computed by PropKaki. Affordability Index™ is annual and shown on Q4 rows. · PropKaki (propkaki.sg)

Methodology

This bulletin is generated from the same live PropKaki Intelligence data as the individual trackers, computed the same way — the Gap™, Wave™, Curve™ and Affordability Index™ figures above are the tracker figures for Q1 2026, not a separate estimate. Each metric's own methodology page (linked in its section) documents scope, formula and version history. Full sourcing and citation formats: how to cite PropKaki data and the question-to-source map. Every data ingestion is logged publicly on the market data changelog.